SiMn Futures Fluctuated Amid Strong Market Wait-and-See Sentiment [SMM SiMn Daily Review]

As of Wednesday this week, SiMn 6517 (cash) in the north China market was at 5,550-5,650 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan WoW; in the south China market, SiMn 6517 (cash) was at 5,600-5,650 yuan/mt, also up 25 yuan WoW.

Cost side, the cost support for SiMn alloy remains strong. Although coke prices dropped back slightly, the core raw material manganese ore prices held firm, with high-grade oxidized ore showing particularly significant gains. The robust cost structure effectively underpins alloy prices.

Supply side, on the futures front, the SiMn futures maintained a fluctuating trend recently. As the most-traded SM2401 contract gradually approaches delivery, market activity increased somewhat, but demand absorption was insufficient, often characterized by "gapping up at open, pulling back at close." The previously accumulated pessimistic sentiment in the futures market eased slightly. On the spot front, affected by the fluctuating futures trend, mills showed low willingness to offer retail quotations, mostly holding back from selling and waiting for futures to surge before offloading. Producer inventory pressure edged up. In north China, new capacity came online recently at alloy plants, with subsequent slow iron output, further increasing supply pressure. In southern regions like Yunnan, impacted by cost increases from higher electricity prices during the dry season, most producers opted for peak-shaving production cuts, reducing production schedules, while operations in other regions remained at low levels.

Demand side, the new round of steel mill tenders is gradually unfolding, and the price acceptance for SiMn alloy remains to be tested.

Overall, the current SiMn market continues the stalemate of "strong costs, weak demand." The rigid support from the cost side and the uncertainty from the demand side are in a standoff, with thick wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the overall market, watching for the finalization of tender prices from mainstream steel mills in the short term.